Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
InflaciónOne-OffMacro y economíaEconomíaPolítica comercialAccionesGeopolítica2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.7%
Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado3 abr 25, 11:45 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
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Manifold MarketsReglas
In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
- Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed.
- However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025.
- Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
