Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomíaMacro y economíaAccionesPolítica de EE. UU.Negocios y empresasPolítica comercial2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.5%
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado10 ene 26, 6:42 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Manifold MarketsWill an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
