Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomíaMacro & EconomyEquitiesUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateTrade Policy3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91%
Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
10 ene 26, 6:42 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
Mercados abiertos
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 34,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,6 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 543,8 mil €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 resultados más
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 7,6 M €
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Us market crash in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Us market crash in 2026??
- Está previsto que Us market crash in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Us market crash in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria