Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
InflaciónOne-OffAccionesPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20268d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 9:44 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.8%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado8 may 26, 15:47 UTC3 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes at least 20% lower than its value on the day of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections within 30 calendar days following the election date.
- If the S&P 500 does not decline by at least 20% within this 30-day window, the market will resolve "No."
- The closing price of the S&P 500 on the day of the election and the subsequent daily closing prices will be verified using official data from S&P Dow Jones Indices or a reliable financial reporting source such as Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance.
- A "crash" is defined here as a sudden, rapid, double-digit decline in the index value, specifically reaching or exceeding a 20% drop from the election-day closing price at any point within the specified timeframe.
- A stock market crash is generally characterized by a sudden, dramatic, and widespread decline in stock prices, often driven by panic selling and significant loss of market value.