PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
Below 4.50% 84%Líder entre 9 opciones
Calidad del mercado
62 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
589,8 €
Liquidez
6,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
3 sept 26, 1:06 UTC31 dic 26, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Futuur10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
Kalshi10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
2 plataformas cotizan actualmente este mercado. La probabilidad de referencia ponderada por liquidez de CoinRithm para Below 4.50% es del 84%. Las cotizaciones difieren en unos 1 punto porcentual entre las plataformas más alejadas.
Referencia CoinRithm Below 4.50% 84% · 2 plataformas · 1 pt de dispersion entre venues
