Bonds & Treasuries

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

7.0%5d

4.8% or above

99%

5% or above

99%

4.9% or above

98%

+6 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total25,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,3 mil US$

KALSHI

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.0%5d

4.1% or above

99%

3.95% or above

99%

4% or above

99%

+16 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total12,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,3 mil US$

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.0%5d

4.3% or above

+6.0%99%

4.35% or above

99%

4.5% or above

97%

+16 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread desconocidoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total12,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h3 mil US$

KALSHI

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

3.0%5d

4.2% or above

99%

4.25% or above

99%

4.3% or above

99%

+16 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total13,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h608 US$

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.31% or above

92%

4.33% or above

85%

4.35% or above

+4.0%82%

+12 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total3,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,5 mil US$

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

25.0%1d

4.31% or above

99%

4.33% or above

95%

4.35% or above

93%

+12 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total3,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,8 mil US$

KALSHI

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

5.01% or above

98%

5.07% or above

96%

5.09% or above

92%

+12 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total2,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,3 mil US$

KALSHI

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

4.46% or above

+3.0%84%

4.48% or above

+3.0%80%

4.5% or above

69%

+12 resultados más

36 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total2,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,6 mil US$

KALSHI

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

97.5%

Sí

2.5%

Pronóstico comunitario66 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

23.0%1d

4.21% or above

99%

4.23% or above

99%

4.29% or above

+23.0%96%

+12 resultados más

36 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total3,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h655,4 US$

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

1.0%1d

4.56% or above

99%

4.58% or above

99%

4.6% or above

94%

+12 resultados más

36 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total2,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h810,3 US$

KALSHI

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

2040 and later

53.4%

2027

12.1%

2030-2039

10%

+6 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario16 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Sí

76.2%

23.8%

Pronóstico comunitario13 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

89%

Sí

11%

49 • Baja calidadSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total71,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

0.5%5m

4.0%

+0.3%100%

3.7%

+0.5%12%

3.5%

-0.5%11%

+6 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total221,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h91 US$

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.5%

+11.2%100%

4.6%

+4.9%100%

4.4%

-1.5%100%

+7 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total259,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h8,4 US$

POLYMARKET

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Sí

50.7%

49.3%

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

91%

Sí

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total66 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

90%

Sí

10%

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total41,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

5.0%5m

4.75% or above

+5.0%59%

5.15% or above

+8.0%33%

5% or above

+1.0%28%

+1 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total14 mil US$

Volumen 24h56,7 US$

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

2.0%5d

4% or above

99%

4.2% or above

99%

4.25% or above

99%

+16 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total10,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h54,2 US$

KALSHI

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

0.1%5m

$39 trillion

-0.1%100%

$40 trillion

+1.4%97%

$41 trillion

+3.0%43%

+1 resultados más

49 • Baja calidadSpread estrechoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total11,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 3.30%

99%

Above 3.40%

98%

Above 3.50%

98%

+13 resultados más

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total9,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

Above 60.0%

62%

Above 62.0%

50%

Above 58.0%

40%

+5 resultados más

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total8,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.25% or above

84%

4.31% or above

72%

4.35% or above

55%

+12 resultados más

36 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidez

Volumen total274 US$

Volumen 24h271 US$

KALSHI

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

0.4%5m

2.6-2.8%

-0.5%23%

2.8-3.0%

-0.4%23%

2.0-2.2%

-1.6%21%

+4 resultados más

71 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoLiquidez media

Volumen total5,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,8 US$

POLYMARKET

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

95.1%

Sí

4.9%

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.3%5m

96%

Sí

Referencia CoinRithm4%· ±0 pts

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total16,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

94%

Sí

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total11,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

3.69 to 3.71

30%

3.75 or more

30%

3.72 to 3.74

29%

+3 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total463,2 US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

FUTUUR

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

4.55 or more

51%

4.50 to 4.54

27%

4.46 to 4.49

18%

+3 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total418,8 US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

FUTUUR

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

>2026

78.2%

2026

15.7%

2025

4.6%

+2 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

1.5%5m

-0.0%80%

Sí

+0.0%20%

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total11,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

Above 3.25%

98%

Above 3.00%

81%

Above 3.75%

80%

+5 resultados más

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total4,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

7.0%5m

Above -20bps

98%

Above -30bps

93%

Above 0bps

93%

+8 resultados más

28 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total2,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h39,1 US$

KALSHI

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

0.5%5m

+0.0%89%

Sí

11%

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total3,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

91%

Sí

10%

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total2,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

Above .7%

65%

Above .8%

36%

Above .9%

28%

+1 resultados más

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total2,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Sí

77.4%

22.6%

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5.05% or above

90%

5.15% or above

58%

5.19% or above

49%

+12 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread moderadoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total173,3 US$

Volumen 24h140 US$

KALSHI

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

90%

Sí

10%

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Sí

50.9%

49.1%

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Sí

66.1%

33.9%

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

70%

Sí

30%

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Sí

56.4%

43.6%

Pronóstico comunitario7 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

At least 4bps

79%

At least 8bps

67%

At least 10bps

57%

+7 resultados más

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total1,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Exactly 2.25%

47%

Exactly 2.50%

35%

Exactly 3.25%

+5 resultados más

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total1,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

US defaults before 2027?

96%

Sí

Referencia CoinRithm4%· ±0 pts

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total1,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

Criptoactivos Relacionados

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

US defaults before 2027?