US defaults on debt by 2027?
1.6 pts (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomía3m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 97%-1.6pt
Calidad del mercado
67 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
812 €
Liquidez
2,1 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
2.7% / 3.8%
Spread
1.1 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+1.9 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
5 nov 25, 19:50 UTC31 dic 26, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,3 mil €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 resultados más
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 resultados más
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,1 mil €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2 mil €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 97% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Está previsto que US defaults on debt by 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- ¿Dónde más está listado US defaults on debt by 2027??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Kalshi.