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  • Inicio
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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Bonds & Treasuries
  3. US defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.8% (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomía6m
PolymarketPolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí
Sí 4%-0.0%
Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad
Volumen 24h

13,1 €

Liquidez

4,4 mil €

Liquidez media
Compra / Venta

1.6% / 6.4%

Spread

300.0%

Spread amplio
Cambio 7d

-1.3%

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 minuto

5 nov 25, 19:5031 dic 26, 0:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Yes4%

KalshiTambién disponible en Kalshi

US defaults before 2027?

US defaults before 2027?

6m
Sí
Sí
5%
No
No
95%
24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total8,8 €
Volumen 24h0 €
KalshiKALSHI

Reglas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.

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U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

0,5 €
Sí: 13%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?

34,5 €
Sí: 31.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

0 €
Sí: 30%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

0 €
Sí: 54.3%LimitlessLIMITLESS
Manifold Markets

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

7,6 mil €
Sí: 14.6%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$65,849.21-0.33%EthereumETH$1,793.82+1.75%SolanaSOL$73.73+0.05%DogecoinDOGE$0.0876+0.47%XRPXRP$1.22-0.53%BNBBNB$607.92-0.97%

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Reglas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.