Will an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
EconomíaIAOne-OffSalud y medicinaAccionesEuropaNegocios y empresas8a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 58.9%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado8 dic 25, 1:46 UTC31 dic 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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ForecastExReglas
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2035, a major equity market correction is triggered primarily by AI‑ and robotics‑driven reductions in the economic value of human labor, as defined below.
- What counts as a “major equity market correction”?
- For this market, a “major correction” means:
- At least one of these broad indices:
- Suffers a peak‑to‑trough decline of ≥30% in nominal terms,
- With the peak and trough no more than 18 months apart.
