Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
BitcoinOne-OffEconomíaMacro y economíaFedMemecoinPolítica comercialAjedrezChinaDeportesEuropaPolítica de EE. UU.2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 24 oct 2026, 15:31 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.9%
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33
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado12 feb 26, 9:21 UTC1 ene 27, 0:00 UTC
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ForecastExReglas
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US economy entered a recession at any point during 2026, OR if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded in 2026.
- Key context:
- Tariff escalation with China, EU, and other trading partners is creating economic uncertainty
- Federal spending cuts from DOGE are reducing government contribution to GDP
- Bitcoin and equity markets have experienced significant corrections in early 2026
- Unemployment has ticked up from 4.0% to 4.3%
