US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)

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Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)?

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98.7% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)?

Está previsto que US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER) se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.

¿Cómo se liquida US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)?

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if by the end of 2026, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred during 2024).

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No97.5%
• Yes-3.0pt2.5%

Volumen total

3,4 M €

Volumen 24h

40,6 mil €

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in November

• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.2%98.5%
• Above 2.3%98.5%

KALSHI

Unemployment in November

• Above 3.7%+2.0pt96%
• Above 3.8%-8.0pt92%
• Above 3.9%-5.0pt82.5%

KALSHI

CPI in November

• Above -0.1%+4.0pt92.5%
• Above 0.0%-2.0pt83.5%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt

KALSHI

Mexico unemployment rate in October

• Above 2.6%+17.0pt58.5%
• Above 2.7%+1.0pt44%
• Above 2.8%-17.0pt

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%-1.0pt99%
• Above 0.0%99%
• Above 0.1%+2.0pt91%

• CPI YoY in December
• October Unemployment Rate
• US recession by end of 2026?
• Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
• CPI in December
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• CPI YoY in November
• Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
• How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
• Core CPI in November
• US economic state at the end of 2026?
• Brazil unemployment rate in September