Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 83%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado14 mar 26, 13:09 UTC30 jun 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiReglas
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,4 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,8 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 548,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 28,8 mil €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 79,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,6 mil €
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 resultados más
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Está previsto que Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] se resuelva el 30 de junio de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- ¿Dónde más está listado Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Kalshi.