By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
One-OffIAMacro y economía1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 13:09 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 70.8%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 minuto
1 ago 26, 16:26 UTC2 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
