¿Para 2028, habrá una ruptura visible en la línea de tendencia del PIB de EE. UU., el PIB per cápita, el desempleo o la productividad, que la mayoría de los economistas atribuya directamente a los efectos de la IA?
EconomíaIAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 71%
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649
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 18 minutos
20 feb 23, 22:31 UTC2 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
