KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Sí 51%
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
4,3 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
48.0% / 51.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 minutos
11 mar 26, 19:00 UTC4 mar 27, 13:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiReglas
If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered.
- Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- Kalshi cotiza Yes al 51% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- Está previsto que U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? se resuelva el 4 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.