Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 83.7%
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18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 53 minutos
Retrasado9 nov 23, 0:21 UTC2 ene 30, 0:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/2621/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.
- This question asks: *In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?*
- For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,6 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 554,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 33,8 mil €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volumen total
- 314,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 11 mil €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 17,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 76 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 84% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030??
- Está previsto que [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?