Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2027 35.9%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+4.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 50 minutos
Retrasado12 sept 25, 21:00 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.5%
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.
- The NBER is the official arbiter of US business cycles and typically announces recession start dates months after they actually begin.
- This market will resolve to the option that corresponds to when the NBER declares the recession started, not when they make the announcement.
- Resolution will be based on official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will the next US recession begin??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2027 al 36% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In what year will the next US recession begin??
- Está previsto que In what year will the next US recession begin? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In what year will the next US recession begin??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.