KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Above 0.0% 94%Líder entre 9 opciones
Calidad del mercado
31 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
3 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
10.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
28 jul 26, 17:00 UTC28 ene 27, 13:29 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Reglas
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US real GDP growth in Q4 2026??
- Kalshi cotiza Above 0.0% al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US real GDP growth in Q4 2026??
- Está previsto que US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? se resuelva el 28 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US real GDP growth in Q4 2026??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.