Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Smarkets data is temporarily unavailable. Odds shown are the last values we collected on Oct 7, 2026.
Current implied probability
Yes 91.7%
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$180
Liquidity
$294.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
91.7% / 98.0%
Spread
6.3 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleTrends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketRules
This market will be void if no by-election takes place in this constituency in 2026.
