Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Aug 18, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Alaska 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
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Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
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Rules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2026 Senate election, among those listed in this market, that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round.
- Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.
All listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races.
The margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. - Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported.
- In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered.
Should the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference Texas 17% · 2 venues · 2 pt band
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-8.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.3pt34.7%
- Édouard Philippe27.4%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.5%
- Gavin Newsom+2.0pt15.5%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.2pt32.7%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt4%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.6M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt85.7%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.3%
- Total Vol
- $23.7M
- 24h Vol
- $585.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest??
- PredictIt prices Alaska at 0% as of August 21, 2026.
- How is Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest? settled?
- PredictIt settles this market as follows: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2026 Senate election, among those listed in this market, that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Where else is Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Kalshi.