PredictItClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Unverified resolution data: 40.0% to 40.2% (96%)
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 16, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
40.0% to 40.2%2%
38.1% or lower1%
38.2% to 38.4%1%
38.5% to 38.7%1%
38.8% to 39.0%15%
39.1% to 39.3%11%
39.4% to 39.6%4%
39.7% to 39.9%1%
40.3% or higher4%
40.0% to 40.2%Awaiting result
38.1% or lowerAwaiting result
38.2% to 38.4%Awaiting result
38.5% to 38.7%Awaiting result
38.8% to 39.0%Awaiting result
39.1% to 39.3%Awaiting result
39.4% to 39.6%Awaiting result
39.7% to 39.9%Awaiting result
40.3% or higherAwaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
President Trump grants clemency to Ghislaine Maxwell by midterms?
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
Manifold MarketsHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Trump's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below.
- The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls, available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating ("the Settlement Source"), as shown on devices set to Eastern Time.
- Any number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the average job approval of President Trump (currently labelled "Approve" in the row labelled "RCP Average") will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
Should the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/16/2026 11:00 AM (ET)
