Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 12:19 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between October 6, 2026, and the end of Midterm Election Day on November 3, 2026 (Eastern Time), President Donald Trump makes a verbal, physical, or behavioral mistake during a public appearance, rally, interview, or official event that is widely characterized as a "gaffe," "blunder," or "slip-up" by mainstream media.
- To ensure an objective resolution, the following criteria apply:
- Media Consensus: The event must be described as a "gaffe," "blunder," "slip-up," or synonymous term in the headlines or lead paragraphs of at least three publications within 72 hours of its occurrence.
- Community Poll Fallback: If there is a dispute or ambiguity about whether an event meets these criteria, the market creator will launch a Manifold community poll.
- The market will resolve to YES if 51% or more of the voters in the poll agree that a major gaffe occurred, and NO otherwise.
