How many Senate races will be won by less than 1%?
PoliticsOne-Off2026 US MidtermsUS PoliticsElection1y
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Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 20, 26, 3:32 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of 2026 Senate elections which fall below a 1% margin of victory.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as the percentages of the popular vote cast in favor of the candidate who wins the most votes and the candidate who wins the second most votes in an election.
The percentage of the popular vote won by each candidate shall be determined by dividing the number of votes the candidate wins by the total number of valid votes for all ballot-listed and write-in candidates as officially reported. - The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
- The result falling precisely on the specified margin threshold will not resolve this market to Yes, as the election margin must be below the threshold to count.
Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round. - In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.