PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 1 100%Leader of 30 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.6K
Liquidity
$67.3K
High liquiditySpread
3.8 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-48.9 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 11:31 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRussia to take Kyiv by force in 2026?
FutuurWill Kyiv remain in the 10 least livable cities in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia target Kyiv on??
- Polymarket prices September 1 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia target Kyiv on? resolve?
- Will Russia target Kyiv on? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Russia target Kyiv on? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.