PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 13 100%
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.4K
Liquidity
$22.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 9, 26, 9:23 PM UTCSep 17, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketFK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi - First Team to Score
PolymarketFK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi - Exact Score
PolymarketRussia's Next Target
Manifold MarketsWill russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRussia to take Kyiv by force in 2026?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.5pt74%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.0pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $660.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia target Kyiv by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 13 at 100% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Russia target Kyiv by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia target Kyiv by which date? is scheduled to resolve on September 17, 2026.
- How is Will Russia target Kyiv by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time.