PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Brad Smith
Resolved: Aug 12, 2026, 10:33 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 12, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Brad Smith 100%+13.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+17.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleJul 20, 26, 10:02 PMAug 11, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Brad Smith100%
Amanda Bell0%
Candidate A0%
Candidate B0%
Candidate C0%
Other0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.
- If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
- Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
