PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Daniel Penny 34%+3.0ptLeader of 28 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.2K
Liquidity
$118.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.5% / 3.9%
Spread
2.4 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-4.3 pts
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Nov 18, 25, 3:50 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Daniel Penny34%
Compare venues· Keonne Rodriguez
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 14% | 0pt | $5.2K | $118.7K | 19 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi70% match · auto | Medium | 18% | +4pt | $775.9 | $218.9K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
2.1 pts5mo
92%
23%
19%
+31 more outcomes
66 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$430.7K
24h Vol$775.9
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.3k93.6%KALSHIDerek Chauvin — No17d ago
KALSHIDerek Chauvin — No17d agoVolume trend
$5.2kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.