What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18)
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope6d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Iran · —
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Stored reference
Iran 94%Leader of 15 outcomes
Iran 94%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
IranSpread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 12:21 AM UTCOct 19, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
ArtWon
Before close: 91% ·
Justice / JudgeWon
Before close: 100% ·
PlantWon
Before close: 91% ·
TrumpWon
Before close: 100% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Market depth · Iran
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between October 12 and October 18, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline.
- The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article.
- Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline.
- Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count.