PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 88.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 9:37 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Kalshi¿El tratado de comercio T-MEC (USMCA) será sustituido con un tratado bilateral entre EE.UU. y México en 2026?
Manifold MarketsCuban regime falls in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement.
- This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement.
- An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
- The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+0.3pt100%
- $25M+0.5pt100%
- $50M+1.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.7M
- 24h Vol
- $491.4K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt50.4%
- October 31-3.0pt27.8%
- September 30+1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Democrat+16.0pt82%
- Communist / Communism+17.0pt79%
- MAGA / Make America Great Again+9.0pt77%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.6pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt14%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHITX-15 House winner?
- Bobby Pulido+6.0pt59.2%
- Monica De La Cruz-4.0pt40.8%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $252.7K
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- What will Trump say this week?
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will Donald Trump issue a public apology?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for USMCA extended in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 88% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does USMCA extended in 2026? resolve?
- USMCA extended in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is USMCA extended in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.