Will Trump withdraw the US from the USMCA before the end of his second term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionLatin America2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.4%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 3:26 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Donald Trump vowed during his presidential campaign that he would invoke the renegotiation clause of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, formerly NAFTA).
- The agreement is up for renegotiation in 2026.
- The USMCA was originally negotiated over 3 years (begun in 2017, finalized in 2019).
- Will Donald Trump abandon the agreement before his second term concludes on 20 Jan 2029?
- This question resolves YES if Trump fully withdraws the US from the agreement.
- The renaming of the agreement, or the creation of a very similar successor agreement that takes effect immediately after USMCA, would not count.
