Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by which date?
3.9 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine22d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$19.3K
Medium liquidityComments
0
7d Change
-17.9 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 26, 26, 10:34 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
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Rules
On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran.
- You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Caspian Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level.
- Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed.