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Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Democratic Party 97%+0.3pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$15
Liquidity
$24.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
95.4% / 97.0%
Spread
1.6 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 26, 9:44 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Open markets
Politics
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.9pt100%
- Seth Moulton-0.7pt0%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4M
- 24h Vol
- $2.3M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt17.2%
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.3pt39%
- Renan Santos+0.7pt3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 more outcomes
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Next French Presidential Election
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for NY-08 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices Democratic Party at 97% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does NY-08 House Election Winner resolve?
- NY-08 House Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is NY-08 House Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.