Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31?
7.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection4mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored reference
Yes 61.4%
Yes 61.4%Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.2K
Liquidity
$21.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$1.1K
Bid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Nov 3, 26, 11:15 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph.
- Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
- An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Gavin Newsom being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.
- Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values.