PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
El-Sayed 3-6% 20%-2.5ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$89.9
Liquidity
$48K
High liquiditySpread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 4, 26, 6:25 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Michigan Senate Election Winner
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PolymarketAbdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County for 2026 Michigan senate?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the Democratic Nominee for Michigan Senate, will they win?
Manifold MarketsRules
The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
- The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively.
- Independent candidates will not represent options for either party.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
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- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory?
- Polymarket prices El-Sayed 3-6% at 20% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory resolve?
- Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.