PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.6M-4.8M 31.7%-8.8ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$552.9
Liquidity
$78.1K
High liquiditySpread
3.5 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+4.2 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 2:13 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Michigan Senate Election Winner
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PolymarketWhich party will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the Democratic Nominee for Michigan Senate, will they win?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
- All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included.
- Invalidated or blank votes are not included.
- In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.4M
- 24h Vol
- $814.6K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $671.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-2.0pt19%
- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Michigan Senate Election: Turnout?
- Polymarket prices 4.6M-4.8M at 32% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Michigan Senate Election: Turnout resolve?
- Michigan Senate Election: Turnout is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Michigan Senate Election: Turnout settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan.