PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 14%+0.5ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$490.1
Liquidity
$25.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
72
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 3:19 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Insurrection Act be invoked by the US government in 2026?
FutuurWill the Insurrection Act be invoked next presidential term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsTrump invokes Insurrection Act by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
KalshiUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Insurrection Act invoked by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 14% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Insurrection Act invoked by which date? resolve?
- Insurrection Act invoked by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Insurrection Act invoked by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Insurrection Act invoked by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.