PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 22%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.1
Liquidity
$19K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 3:19 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3122%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 22% | — | $5.1 | $19K | 12 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets80% match · verified | — | 40% | — | — | — | 51 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by the following date?
5mo
39.9%
33.1%
28%
+25 more outcomes
Community forecast31 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 225d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.