If this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMarco Rubio 17.1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 9:41 PM UTCJan 20, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Insurrection Act be invoked next presidential term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsInsurrection Act invoked by which date?
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Manifold MarketsTrump invokes the Insurrection Act by the following date?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if this person became president of the United States after the 2028 US election, and the insurrection act is invoked by January 21st 2032 (the point at which their term would expire per the Constitution).
- Resolves NO if they were elected president and it isn't invoked.
- Resolves N/A if they weren't president at any time (winning the election but not being inaugurated also resolves N/A for that person, and YES/NO for whoever actually becomes president).
- If they resign and the Insurrection Act is invoked in this interval, still resolves YES (e.g. if they resign, their VP becomes president, and their VP invokes it).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032??
- Manifold Markets prices Marco Rubio at 17% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does If this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032? resolve?
- If this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2032.
- How is If this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if this person became president of the United States after the 2028 US election, and the insurrection act is invoked by January 21st 2032 (the point at which their term would expire per the Constitution).