PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
<170 45%+11.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$24K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 9:49 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Polymarket0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)
KalshiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
- If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
- In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.