KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 150 70%-11.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 4:30 PM UTCSep 22, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
PolymarketTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)
KalshiBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketRules
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3132%
- October 31-1.0pt22%
- September 30-1.0pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.9M
- 24h Vol
- $34.7K
KALSHIWill Trump issue dividend payments in 2026?
- No96%
- Yes-5.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $42.3K
- 24h Vol
- $11.2K
KALSHITraffic through the Panama Canal? (9/14 - 9/20)
- Above 17595%
- Above 20062%
- Above 225-1.0pt8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt69%
- October 31+4.0pt44%
- September 3020%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Costco say during their next earnings call?
- Tariff+9.0pt93%
- Kirkland90%
- Spending80%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19K
KALSHIWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Before 2027+1.1pt6%
- Before August0%
- Total Vol
- $2.4M
- 24h Vol
- $4K
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
- Will new tariffs become law?
- What will Aritzia say during their next earnings call?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/14 - 9/20)
- Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)?
- Kalshi prices Above 150 at 70% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) resolve?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) is scheduled to resolve on September 22, 2026.
- How is Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.