How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
1.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability4-6 79%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$4.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.8% / 25.7%
Spread
22.9 pt
Wide spread7d Change
-2.9 pts
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
4-679%
Compare venues· 3
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall80% match · verified | Medium | 24% | 0pt | $1.4K | $202K | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 79% | +55pt | $0 | $4.4K | 25 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 pts3mo
-1.0pt67%
-2.0pt24%
-1.9pt2%
+1 more outcomes
62 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$429.6K
24h Vol$1.4K
KALSHIRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$63Jul 319d of dataJul 27
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.