How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
1.9 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
10-12 · —
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Stored reference
10-12 94%Leader of 6 outcomes
10-12 94%Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$733.7
Liquidity
$29.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
10-12Spread
—
Comments
8
7d Change
+5.7 pts
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
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Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
4-6Lost
7-9Lost
<3Lost
>15Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Market depth · 10-12
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.