PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
10–15s 38%+10.0ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$548.8
Liquidity
$33.9K
High liquiditySpread
2.7 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 9:58 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States on September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
- This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during this summit.
- Any handshake recorded during the summit will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory.
- If the named outcome occurs during the summit, or if Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “the named outcome”.
- If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase-6.0pt49.5%
- No change+5.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.7M
- 24h Vol
- $865.3K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+3.0pt100%
- September 25+10.5pt95%
- September 30+6.5pt85%
+3 more outcomes
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- Democratic Party+1.1pt92%
- Republican Party-1.5pt8%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $499K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-1.4pt8.1%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+4.5pt100%
- October 31+2.8pt100%
- September 24+5.1pt100%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How long will Trump and Xi shake hands??
- Polymarket prices 10–15s at 38% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does How long will Trump and Xi shake hands? resolve?
- How long will Trump and Xi shake hands? is scheduled to resolve on October 8, 2026.
- How is How long will Trump and Xi shake hands? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States on September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.