Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 28, 23, 1:24 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump go to Maine before election day?
Manifold MarketsSourcery with Molly O'Shea: Will Donald Trump go on?
KalshiWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?
KalshiRules
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
