Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 28, 23, 1:24 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sourcery with Molly O'Shea: Will Donald Trump go on?
KalshiWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRules
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How Long Will Trump Go To Jail??
- Manifold Markets prices < 1 year (includes 0 time) at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? resolve?
- How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on time sentenced.