Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.6%
Forecasters
101
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 24, 10:15 PM UTCAug 25, 27, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028
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PolymarketRules
Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)
- Resolves Yes if Pavel Durov is actually going to prison as a result of this whole situation.
- Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this.
- Also resolves No if three years from now there is no meaningful conclusion to this story.
- Update (Aug 26): Regarding the exact definition of “go to jail” in this market - Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes.
- A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? resolve?
- Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? is scheduled to resolve on August 25, 2027.
- How is Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)