PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 84%
December 31 84%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$678.3
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
9
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Feb 12, 26, 8:03 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
June 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsGreta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?
Manifold MarketsWill Greta Thunberg be sentenced to prison before 2030
Manifold MarketsIlhan Omar arrested by which date?
PolymarketWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.