Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.9%
Forecasters
71
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleSep 29, 25, 1:03 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Greta Thunberg calls for AI research pause/halt by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:
- Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk")
- Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador
- Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause
- Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals
- This market does NOT resolve YES if:
