French Presidential Election First Round: Le Pen hits __% in any poll?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
38% · —
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Stored reference
38% 63%Leader of 3 outcomes
38% 63%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$80
Liquidity
$593.9
Low liquidityOpen interest
$61.2
Bid / Ask
— / —
38%Spread
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Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Nov 6, 26, 10:37 PM UTCApr 17, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
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- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Market depth · 38%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The first round of the French presidential election is scheduled to take place on April 18, 2027.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any first-round voting intention poll for this election conducted by Elabe, YouGov, OpinionWay, Ifop, Harris Interactive, Odoxa, or Ipsos, and published between market creation and April 17, 2027, 11:59 PM Paris time, shows Marine Le Pen with the listed percentage or higher of first-round voting intentions.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a poll tests multiple first-round scenarios (e.g., different combinations of candidates), Le Pen reaching the listed percentage or higher in any single tested scenario will qualify.
- Rolling polls (e.g., Ifop-Fiducial rolling) qualify, with each individual release considered a separate poll.
- Polls of the second round, polls conducted by other pollsters, and averages or aggregations of polls will not qualify.