PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Abelardo de la Espriella (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
Abelardo de la Espriella 100%+0.6ptLeader of 28 outcomes
Market quality
19 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.6K
Liquidity
$100
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-12.4 pts
Market data
Updated 32 days ago
StaleJul 29, 25, 5:22 PMJun 21, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Abelardo de la Espriella99%
Candidate M50%
Vicky Dávila (IND)0%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)0%
Claudia López (IND)0%
David Luna Sánchez (IND)0%
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)0%
Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD)0%
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)0%
Sergio Fajardo (DC)1%
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)0%
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)0%
Mauricio Cárdenas0%
Iván Cepeda Castro0%
Daniel Quintero0%
Roy Barreras0%
Enrique Peñalosa0%
Juan Carlos Pinzón0%
Paloma Valencia3%
Carlos Felipe Córdoba0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Other0%
Candidate N0%
Candidate O0%
Candidate P0%
Candidate Q0%
50%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Abelardo de la Espriella
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Columbia Presidential Election
Closed
Resolved
Abelardo de la Espriella (99%)
+1.0pt99%
-0.8pt0.8%
0%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast22 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Limitless
Colombia Presidential Election
Closed
Resolved
Abelardo de la Espriella (99.5%)
94.8%
1.7%
1.1%
+4 more outcomes
12 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$11.5K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).