PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Texas 13.8%+14.3ptLeader of 18 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$40
Liquidity
$119.9K
High liquiditySpread
32.2 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 8:05 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Closest Governor race in 2026?
KalshiTexas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
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Manifold Markets2026 Texas Governor Race
Robinhood (Rothera)2026 California Governor Race
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
- If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt58.8%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva40.2%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $153.3M
- 24h Vol
- $967.8K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep+0.3pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $223.1M
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-5.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Total Vol
- $33.2M
- 24h Vol
- $600.7K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.9pt91%
- Republican Party+0.3pt9%
- Total Vol
- $34.5M
- 24h Vol
- $564.5K
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Closest Governor's Race??
- Polymarket prices Texas at 13.8% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Closest Governor's Race? resolve?
- Closest Governor's Race? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Closest Governor's Race? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.