Current implied probability
Nigel Farage 90%Leader of 52 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$376.6K
Liquidity
$257.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
89.7% / 90.7%
Spread
1.1%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 3:05 PMJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Nigel Farage90%
Compare venues· Reform UK
Ordered by 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
Clacton by-election winner?
1y
90%
5%
1%
+2 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$146.8K
24h Vol$146.8K
KALSHI
Also available on Smarkets
Clacton By-Election - Winner
0%
12.2%
0%
+4 more outcomes
49 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$21.3K
24h Vol$21.3K
SMARKETSRules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
- If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.2k96.0%Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — NoProfessionalPunter10h ago
Volume trend
$376.6kJul 72d of dataJul 8
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A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
- If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).