PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityMike Thompson 85%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$27.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 85.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 6, 26, 10:07 PMNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mike Thompson85%
Volume trend
$3.0kJul 62d of dataJul 7
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This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).