Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?
4.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America17d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
41-44% 45.9%+17.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$17K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 2:26 AM UTCOct 5, 26, 2:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
- The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count.